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Abstract Copy number aberrations (CNAs) are ubiquitous in many types of cancer. Inferring CNAs from cancer genomic data could help shed light on the initiation, progression, and potential treatment of cancer. While such data have traditionally been available via “bulk sequencing,” the more recently introduced techniques for single-cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq) provide the type of data that makes CNA inference possible at the single-cell resolution. We introduce a new birth-death evolutionary model of CNAs and a Bayesian method, NestedBD, for the inference of evolutionary trees (topologies and branch lengths with relative mutation rates) from single-cell data. We evaluated NestedBD’s performance using simulated data sets, benchmarking its accuracy against traditional phylogenetic tools as well as state-of-the-art methods. The results show that NestedBD infers more accurate topologies and branch lengths, and that the birth-death model can improve the accuracy of copy number estimation. And when applied to biological data sets, NestedBD infers plausible evolutionary histories of two colorectal cancer samples. NestedBD is available athttps://github.com/Androstane/NestedBD. 

Abstract Phylogenetic networks provide a powerful framework for modeling and analyzing reticulate evolutionary histories. While polyploidy has been shown to be prevalent not only in plants but also in other groups of eukaryotic species, most work done thus far on phylogenetic network inference assumes diploid hybridization. These inference methods have been applied, with varying degrees of success, to data sets with polyploid species, even though polyploidy violates the mathematical assumptions underlying these methods. Statistical methods were developed recently for handling specific types of polyploids and so were parsimony methods that could handle polyploidy more generally yet while excluding processes such as incomplete lineage sorting. In this article, we introduce a new method for inferring most parsimonious phylogenetic networks on data that include polyploid species. Taking gene tree topologies as input, the method seeks a phylogenetic network that minimizes deep coalescences while accounting for polyploidy. We demonstrate the performance of the method on both simulated and biological data. The inference method as well as a method for evaluating evolutionary hypotheses in the form of phylogenetic networks are implemented and publicly available in the PhyloNet software package. [Incomplete lineage sorting; minimizing deep coalescences; multilabeled trees; multispecies network coalescent; phylogenetic networks; polyploidy.]